It’s been quite a while—13 years, in fact—since we’ve seen the Knicks and the Pacers butt heads in the postseason.

Make no mistake, these are much different teams than they were back then, with the Pacers now taking the mantle of tough guys and the Knicks playing a more refined, superstar-dominated game. Just about the only constant will be Spike Lee on the sideline, but without Reggie Miller on hand, who is he going to trash talk? George Hill?

That aspect of the series won’t be as satisfying as the old Knicks-Pacers rivalry. But this series promises to be just as tense hinging on a few key questions.
1. What will the Pacers do with Carmelo Anthony?
This is an out-of-the-frying-pan, into-the-fire situation for Anthony. The gauntlet of the Celtics defense was a tough adjustment for Anthony in Round 1, as Boston worked to seal off Anthony’s driving lanes and comfort zones,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], forcing him into ever-more difficult contested jumpers. Anthony averaged 29.2 points, but shot only 38.1 percent from the field, ,and it wasn’t until Game 6, he said, that he finally adjusted and began moving the ball to teammates as his first option.
Now Anthony gets Pacers wing Paul George,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], who is a little less physical than Boston’s Brandon Bass, but much more athletic. Pacers coach Frank Vogel is not at all afraid to throw George out on Anthony for the bulk of the game, even though George carries a huge load on the offensive end. Anthony had two decent games against George and the Pacers in New York, but had one of his worst games of the season—15 points on 7-for-21 shooting—in Indiana just after the All-Star break, a game the Knicks lost by 34 points. In all, he shot only 37.9 percent against the Pacers this year.
George will get plenty of help, starting with center Roy Hibbert, an outstanding rim-protector. Because the Knicks will go small, with Anthony at power forward, that leaves Indiana’s power forward, David West, without a pure matchup, and chances are he will wind up watching guard Pablo Prigioni or forward Iman Shumpert, allowing him to cheat in to help with Anthony as long as he can get back to defend potential 3-point shots.
Anthony shuddered to call himself a decoy as he got teammates involved in Game 6 against Boston, but whatever he wants to label it, he was effective. Given the defensive prowess of George and his teammates, Anthony would be best served to employ the decoy ploy in stretches again.
2. How will the strength vs. strength matchups play out,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]?
Offensively, the Knicks were not too difficult to figure out in the regular season—outside of Anthony, they mostly like to shoot 3s, setting a league record for attempted 3-pointers (2,371) and 3-pointers made (891). That’s 37.6 percent, which was fifth in the NBA. The Pacers, though, have big, athletic defenders all over the perimeter, and allowed the fewest makes (440) in the league, and the second-fewest attempts (1,344). That’s just 32.7 percent.
Something has got to give, obviously. The Knicks collectively shot just 33.3 percent from the 3-point line in the first round, and Anthony was awful, missing 19 in a row at one point and shooting 26.5 percent. Sixth man J.R. Smith will be important, too, as he shot just 33.3 percent on 3s.
As intriguing will be the strength of Indiana’s offense against the strength of New York’s defense, and that tale will be told in the post. The Knicks were, according to Synergy Sports, the No. 1 team in the league in defensive efficiency when guarding post-ups (.752 points per possession). The Pacers were seventh in post-up efficiency (.865), but they were easily the most post-heavy team in the league, going into the post on 17.9 percent of their possessions—only two other teams, Utah (16.1 percent) and Memphis (15,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych].1) used post-ups as much as 15 percent of the time.
In other words, while the ability of Pacers’ defenders to close out on Knicks 3-point shooters will be key on one side, the ability of Anthony, Tyson Chandler and Kenyon Martin off the bench to contain Hibbert and West inside will be crucial on the other.
3. Can Indiana win on the road?
The Knicks won the No. 2 seed in the regular season and they have the home-court benefit because of it. That’s a problem for the Pacers, who are the only remaining team in the East with a losing record (19-21) on the road. The good news is that the Pacers did win a road game to close out the Hawks in the first round, though they were roundly pummeled in their first two games in Atlanta.
The Pacers don’t do anything glaringly worse on the road than they do at home, it’s just that everything sags slightly—they turn the ball over more (by 1.3 per game), their rebounding margin drops (from 5.8 to 4.2), they allow better shooting (42.8 percent, rather than 41.1 percent at home).
To get playoff wins on the road, they’ll need to keep things close by relying on their defense and rebounding, and then hope that the guy who is the future of the franchise—George—can show himself to be a clutch fourth-quarter player. The Pacers are not a deep team, and George was their focal point in the first round. If the Pacers have a chance to pull the upset, he will have to channel Reggie Miller a bit and show some guts at the Garden.
Prediction: Knicks in 7
Ultimately, as prominent as Anthony is and as well as Raymond Felton played in the first round, the Knicks’ depth might be the deciding factor here—especially if they get something out of Amare Stoudemire and Steve Novak. The Pacers’ bench has been a problem all year, and top reserves Gerald Green,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Tyler Hansbrough and D.J. Augustin combined to shoot 35.5 percent in the first round. With J.R. Smith, Kenyon Martin and Jason Kidd in reserve, the Knicks have far more flexibility, allowing Mike Woodson to create matchup problems. Over the course of a series, that figures to win out.

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